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Fourth wave coffee - what comes after the third

The coffee world likes to describe its history in waves. The first gave coffee to the masses, the second created cafe culture, and the third turned coffee into a craft, emphasising origin and quality. But what comes next? More and more people speak of a fourth wave of coffee, although no one quite knows what it actually is. It is a blurred and hotly debated concept, because we are in the very middle of a process that is only crystallising. In this post we will explain what each of the previous waves was, look at the competing definitions of the fourth and consider whether it even exists. Understanding this dispute will help you see where the coffee world is heading and what it means for your daily cup at home.

A brief reminder of the three waves

To understand the fourth wave, you need to know the three previous ones. The first wave is coffee for the masses: the era of cheap, convenient coffee, including instant and big brands, where availability counted, not quality. The second wave is the birth of cafe culture: chains like Starbucks popularised espresso-based drinks, latte and cappuccino, turning drinking coffee into an experience and a lifestyle. The third wave treated coffee like a craft and a noble product: it focused on single origin, lighter roast, transparency of origin, ethics and quality assessment on the specialty scale. It is the third wave that gave us today’s world of good coffee. Each wave did not so much replace the previous one as add a new layer. We write more about the third wave in our post on third wave coffee.

What the fourth wave (is not)

Here the difficulties begin. The fourth wave of coffee is a fuzzy concept lacking a single, agreed definition. While there is wide consensus on the first three waves, the fourth remains blurred and contested, because it describes a process that is still ongoing. Different people and companies understand it in completely different ways, which causes quite a lot of confusion. Some see in it the scaling of quality to the masses, others science and precision, still others the home as the new centre of coffee or the building of community. These visions sometimes complement and sometimes exclude each other. It is worth treating the fourth wave not as one clearly defined era, but as a set of trends indicating which way coffee is evolving after the third wave. Let us look at the main competing definitions, because each says something important about the future of coffee.

Scalability: quality for the masses

One of the most important definitions says that the fourth wave is not another step in the science of coffee, but scalability: making high-quality coffee available to broad masses. The third wave was sometimes seen as somewhat elitist, closed in niche cafes for connoisseurs and hipsters. The fourth wave would change this, bringing good coffee out of this niche into the mainstream, making it available, affordable and less snobbish. The point is that specialty quality should stop being a privilege of a narrow circle, and become a norm available to the ordinary consumer, in the supermarket or an ordinary cafe. In this view the fourth wave is a democratisation of quality: taking the best practices of the third wave and scaling them so they reach millions of people, not just enthusiasts. It is a vision of coffee that is better, but also more egalitarian.

Science and precision

Another definition places the fourth wave on a foundation of science and precision. In this view it is an era in which coffee is studied like a real field of science: its chemistry and physics are explored, precise measurements are made at every stage of brewing and new, innovative methods are developed based on hard data. Refractometers measuring extraction, precise scales, control of temperature and time, analysis of brewing variables, all of this fits this vision. The fourth wave as science means a move away from intuition toward repeatability and understanding why a given method gives a given effect. It is a deepening of the third wave’s craft with scientific rigour. For supporters of this definition, the future of coffee lies in an even better, knowledge-based understanding of the process, which lets you consciously steer flavour instead of relying on guessing and chance.

The home as the centre

Another important vision shifts coffee’s centre of gravity from the cafe to the home. While the second and third waves played out mainly in cafes, the fourth wave would focus on home brewing. More and more people invest in home coffee corners: decent grinders, machines, pour-over equipment, learning techniques previously reserved for baristas. This trend accelerated in the period when people stayed home more often and wanted to recreate cafe quality at home. In this view the fourth wave is the era of the conscious home consumer, who not only drinks good coffee, but also prepares it themselves at a high level. The home becomes a new laboratory and cafe in one. It is a democratisation of skill: knowledge and equipment that were once the domain of professionals reach the homes of ordinary enthusiasts.

Technology and equipment

The home revolution is closely tied to technology. The fourth wave is sometimes associated with the influx of smart, ever more advanced equipment that makes it easier to achieve high quality at home. Machines with precise control of temperature and pressure, grinders with repeatable grinding, apps guiding you through brewing, devices connecting to the internet, all of this lowers the barrier to entry. Technology lets a layman achieve results that once required years of experience. On one hand this democratises quality, on the other it raises questions about whether an excess of automation does not rob coffee of its craft spirit. Regardless of the assessment, the development of equipment is a real driver of change in home brewing. For many it is precisely technology, making great coffee attainable and repeatable at home, that best captures the practical dimension of the fourth wave, more than abstract discussions about definitions.

Community and accessibility

Yet another vision of the fourth wave says it is not about what is in the cup, but about the people around coffee. In this view the fourth wave is about building community and including those who were left behind by the third wave. The third wave was sometimes charged with elitism, exclusivity and a barrier of knowledge that scared off the average consumer. The fourth wave would consciously create a community around coffee, open, accessible and friendly, rather than a closed club of the initiated. What counts here is hospitality, education without snobbery and a sense of belonging. It is a vision of coffee as a social glue, and not just a product to be assessed. In this sense the fourth wave returns to the social role of coffee, known since the first coffeehouses, but in a modern, conscious form, combining quality with openness and community instead of exclusion.

The coffee waves in brief

Let us gather the whole evolution in one place:

The table shows that each wave added something new. The fourth stands out in that it has no single definition, but combines several trends at once, which makes it hard to grasp, but also fascinating.

The debate: does the fourth wave exist

It is worth saying openly: not everyone even agrees that the fourth wave exists. Sceptics claim it is rather a marketing ploy or a premature attempt to name something that is only forming. Others already speak even of a fifth wave, although there is no consensus on that either. The problem is that waves are easy to describe in hindsight, and hard to name as a process in the middle of which we currently are. Perhaps only years from now will it be clear whether the current trends deserved the name of a separate wave, or were merely an extension of the third. This uncertainty is natural and does not diminish the real changes taking place in the coffee world. Regardless of whether we call it the fourth wave, coffee is evolving, and the directions of this evolution are worth understanding, to find your place in it consciously.

What it means for you

What does all this mean for the ordinary coffee lover? Quite a lot of practical good news. If the fourth wave is the scaling of quality, it means good coffee is becoming ever more available and less elitist. If it is the home as the centre and technology, it means it has never been easier to brew great coffee at home, thanks to ever better and more affordable equipment. If it is science, you get more and more knowledge of how to consciously steer flavour. And if it is community, the coffee world becomes more open and friendly to beginners. Regardless of the definition, for you it means better, more accessible and more understandable coffee. It is worth taking advantage of these trends: investing in home equipment, learning the basics and experimenting. We write more about what makes coffee exceptional in our post what is specialty coffee.

The key points in a nutshell

The fourth wave of coffee is a blurred and debated concept, because it describes a process that is only crystallising. After the first wave of coffee for the masses, the second of cafe culture and the third of craft and origin, the fourth combines several competing visions: scaling quality to the masses, the science and precision of brewing, the home as the new centre supported by technology, and building an open community around coffee. Not everyone even agrees that the fourth wave exists, and some already speak of a fifth. Regardless of the naming, for the ordinary drinker it means better, more accessible and more understandable coffee. Want to discover coffee in the spirit of the new wave and record your impressions? Keep notes in the GustoNote app. See also our posts on third wave coffee and what is specialty coffee.